Last week, I didn’t do anything in the market. However, there were plenty of earnings results to soak up and make sense of. Today, I review two of my picks for the year: Uber and Amgen. I will also say a few words about Gilead Sciences, which was a pick for 2024.
Uber
UBER is up around 30% since I recommended it in November 2024.
Q2 results show that UBER is firing on all cylinders. The results were beating on all metrics. Revenue growth was 18% against my estimated 15%. Gross profits and EBIT margins were also stronger than what I had projected. UBER raised its guidance for the 3rd quarter, and due to the good results and guidance revisions, I adjusted my fair value estimate from $100 to $105 per share.
The only thing I missed in the earnings report was a breakout of advertising sales. I suspect that advertising has become a substantial source of revenue. Still, the advertising revenue is likely to be in line with the growth in Uber One memberships, which have grown to 36 million from 30 million at the start of the year.
UBER made a number out of its accelerated buyback program on the earnings call, now standing at a pledge of $20 billion. Currently, UBER has a buyback yield of 2%, and it is safe to say that this number will at least double next year.
Robotaxis have been a source of worry for UBER. Whenever a robotaxi company announces something that UBER isn’t involved in, the shares sell off automatically. In the last year, UBER has taken a more aggressive stance in the space, and has now struck 20 partnerships with automated vehicle providers in various parts of the globe. My thoughts about this can be divided into two parts.
First, widespread adoption of robotaxis will take considerable time, and even as their presence grows, human drivers and autonomous vehicles are likely to coexist for many years to come.
Second, I find it hard to believe that Waymo, Tesla, and other players will develop into a fleet management business with a ride-hailing app on top of the stack. Who wants to run such a capital-intensive business on a global scale? More likely, fleet management will splinter into millions of small and medium-sized enterprises. The money lies in being the software provider, not the hardware provider. UBER will remain the market leader on the application layer. Google and Tesla can’t challenge UBER as the ultimate demand aggregator. Consumers want a single, cost‑effective solution that can get them where they need to go quickly—not hundreds of apps with varying options. Uber is the only platform that realistically can deliver on that promise.
Amgen
AMGN is flat since I recommended it as a pick for 2025. As is typical, the stock dipped on Q2 earnings, despite ANGN once again delivering excellent results and raising its 2025 guidance. Investors needn’t worry: AMGN’s financial performance continues to exceed expectations. Due to the strong results and improved projections, I raise my fair value estimate from $335 to $340 per share.
The media highlighted softer sales of Prolia, AMGN’s key osteoporosis drug, after the earnings report. However, Prolia’s loss of exclusivity is a well-known issue, and no reason to sell. Prolia’s revenue declined just 4%, as market share remains intact despite pricing pressure from biosimilar competition. More importantly, excluding Prolia, AMGN has 15 products delivering revenue growth above 10%, underscoring the company’s diversified strength, broad portfolio, and robust pipeline.
What stood out to me in the report was how AMGN is crushing it in the rare diseases division. Their rare disease drug sales surged 19% year-over-year (YoY), generating nearly $1.4 billion in Q2 2025 alone, and are now annualizing at over $5 billion in revenue. Key products, such as Tepezza (eye disease), Krystexxa (metabolic disorder), Uplizna (nerve disease), and Tavneos (blood vessel inflammation), are driving this growth. All are in early life cycles with strong volume momentum and recent approvals expanding their patient reach. AMGN’s commitment to innovating in rare diseases is further highlighted by ongoing FDA approvals and international launches, underpinning their robust pipeline and long-term development strategy in this high-value, underserved market segment.
AMGN has the potential to capture market share in the obesity space with its monthly injectable drug MariTide. Clinical trials are ongoing in the latest stage. If everything goes as expected, MariTide is set to launch next fall.
Gilead Sciences
GILD is up 65% since I recommended it in 2024. Earlier this year, I stated that I couldn’t foresee GILD surpassing $115 in 2025. Evidently, by glaring at the price close to $120, I have to eat my words. FX has changed from being a headwind to a tailwind, and the results have also been stronger than I projected, far surpassing my estimate of stagnant growth this year. When I recommended GILD, I was alone in having a sky-high target of $115 per share; now, Wall Street analysts have changed their tune following the strong price action. JP Morgan has, for example, a price target of $135 per share. I am also elated by the results, but I will only do a moderate update at this point, raising my fair value estimate to $125 from $115 per share.
GILD’s Q2 2025 earnings showed a 4% YoY underlying revenue growth to $7.1 billion, driven primarily by a 7% increase in its HIV product sales, which reached $5.1 billion. Flagship drugs like Biktarvy and Descovy grew by 9% and 35%, respectively, underscoring GILD’s continued dominance in the HIV treatment space. The debut of Yeztugo, the first twice-yearly HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), generated $107 million in its first quarter, marking a significant innovation that broadens GILD’s market reach and aligns with global health needs.
Despite some challenges, most notably a 7% decline in cell therapy sales due to competitive pressures and a 44% drop in Veklury revenue as COVID-19 hospitalizations decline, the company’s strategic focus on HIV, hepatitis, oncology innovation via Trodelvy (which saw 14% sales growth), and global equity partnerships signals durable, well-diversified growth. The earnings beat alongside better guidance, a $6 billion share repurchase program, and ongoing R&D pipeline investments underscores GILD’s strong cash flow and innovation capacity.
Overall, GILD's strong HIV franchise, promising pipeline advancements, and capital return strategy underscore its position as a high-conviction long-term investment in biotechnology. To put a finer point on it, there is no way to deny that Wall Street's newfound optimism is tied to GILD’s launch of Yeztugo in the PrEP space. Yeztugo is expected to both cannibalize sales of Gilead’s own Descovy and capture market share from GSK’s Apretude, ultimately expanding Gilead’s overall presence in the PrEP market. GILD projects that annualized revenues from Yestugo can be $5 billion in 2030. Descovy’s annualized revenues are expected to be $2.5 billion this year, putting it into perspective.
GILD is now larger than Novo Nordisk in my portfolio.
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